“America: The House Always Wins” Why Trump’s Gamble to Overturn the International Order is a Fool’s Errand

Back in 2012 I was walking the Wainwright Coast to Coast trail across England with my then 14 year old son. The night before we finished, we found ourselves in a quaint English pub with another father and son who hailed from Germany also doing the trek. Over a couple beers our conversation turned toward the politics of the day and the issue of the richer countries in Europe having to bail out some of the weaker ones during a currency crisis on the Euro.

I asked Andreas, “Doesn’t Germany get tired of having to pay more than the other countries who don’t kick in their fair share?”

Andreas smiled and motioned to his 20-year-old son, “Europe has been at peace for 70 years. Our children have never known war. Most Germans are willing to pay more than their fair share to maintain that peace.”

I remember being impressed with the mature and thoughtful attitude my new friend had toward geopolitics and Germany’s role and responsibility as a peacemaker with a more prosperous economy.

Fast forward 13 years to Trump’s America and a president who has spent the first eight weeks of his administration doing the exact opposite.

Rather than using the immense leverage America enjoys economically over any other nation to bring a sense of peace in a time where people and countries are experiencing high levels of anxiety and distrust, Trump chooses instead to vent the grievances he has held against NATO and our Western allies since the 80’s. Many talk show clips have been making the rounds on Youtube showing a much younger Trump bewailing Japan and Europe for taking advantage of America and “ripping us off.” Now that’s he’s President, Trump has made good on that long pent up feeling of being swindled by our allies.

Along with a flood of statements designed to provoke and disarm, Trump has talked of annexing Greenland from Denmark, reclaiming the Panama Canal from the Panamanians and to add insult to injury has threatened our nearest and dearest neighbor, Canada.

When the creators of the satirical TV show South Park penned the song “Blame Canada” as an absurd joke back in 1999 no one could have ever imagined there could one day be a U.S. President that would indeed “Blame Canada”.

Meanwhile Russia’s Putin & China’s Xi look on and must wonder if they are getting pranked as their most cherished foreign policy goal, the splitting of the Western alliance, gets enacted by the very man trusted to protect it.

So how did we get to this weird Twilight Zone reality?

Perhaps as a failed casino owner, Trump seems to have never understood the concept of “the House always wins” and the United States is (or, at least was) “the House”.

“The House always Wins”

Anyone who has visited Las Vegas knows it is unlike any other vacation spot. Low-priced food buffets, room deals, and free entertainment options abound; and hey, the drinks are free when gambling! Some bigger players even have their suites and villas comped by the casinos. Of course, the reason all this generosity is possible is because in the end, it all comes back to the casino. The gambling numbers are ordered so that a set percentage over time always comes back to the House. It’s in the casino’s interest to keep as many people happy, engaged, and entertained because…

The House always wins!

Similarly, after World War 2 the United States led the charge to put a system in place that would favor its interests. It saw financing the rebuilding of Germany & Japan after the war, rather than leveling on them crushing economic penalties, as in its own national interests. America then chose to subsidize European defense and cultivate rule of law institutions around the world because when there were countries that were happy, engaged, and prospering, then America prospered.

The U.S. dollar became the defacto trading currency in the world allowing America many economic advantages not enjoyed by any other country. The United States emerged from this process as “the house” and yes, as “the house” frequently doled out free drinks and comped rooms to keep everyone in the world playing regularly and orderly. And when everyone else was doing well, America often did better.

Because we are “the house”.

Now does Trump introduce some questions of America’s largesse that has gotten too disproportionate to the advantages enjoyed?

Absolutely!

Japan and NATO can certainly increase their contributions to defense and I have long argued it was time for Europe to put on its “big boy pants”. But make no mistake, the International order that has been put in place since 1945 has long favored the interests of the United States and only a fool president would fiddle with the “house advantage”.

So whenever I hear a MAGA supporter talk about it being “payback time” or that America is through being taken advantage of I just think of all those punters in Vegas getting their free drinks or comped rooms and think, “yeah, Caesar’s Palace must really feel the pain of all those gamblers not paying their fair share.”

And only a fool would blame Canada!

Peace,

Steve