Weekend Distractions: My Academy Award Predictions 2015

It’s Oscar time again and this is the first year since returning to Hong Kong that the Academy Awards fall on Chinese New Year holiday.  Because the awards are on Monday morning in Hong Kong due to the time difference this spares me the decision of whether to:

* take a vacation day and watch the show live

* go on a news and social media blackout all day and watch the evening rebroadcast

However while a Monday morning does put a cramp in my annual “Oscar Party” (which we used to do in Boulder) it in no way puts a cramp on my Oscar predictions.  So my 2015 Oscar picks are:

Best Picture: Conventional wisdom says the contest is between Birdman and Boyhood.  For me though if you take out the incredible 12 year shooting schedule watching people age for real, there was just not enough story “meat” on Boyhood’s bones.  Plus with the largest Academy voting block being actors I’m going to side with thespian narcissism and suggest the gold will go to Birdman and its story of an actor’s comeback and staging a Broadway play.  I enjoyed all the Best Picture nominees this year except Foxcatcher which bored me to no end.  The bio pics were good but to “by the numbers.”  Personally the best film of the pack for me was either The Grand Budapest Hotel or Whiplash.

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (or Whiplash)

Will win: Birdman

Best Director:  This will be the closest race of the evening.  It could go either to Alejandro Inarritu’s Birdman whose single shot filmaking was visually compelling or Richard Linklater’s 12 year in the making Boyhood.  I’ll probably be wrong but I’m thinking voters will split the Director and Picture categories and ultimately give the gold to Linklater.

Should Win: Richard Linklater

Will Win: Richard Linklater

 

Best Actress: Julianne Moore is up for her 5th Oscar but she’s never won. Her riveting performance as an Alzheimers victim in the film Still Alice will be the Academy’s chance to give Moore the gold.  (Although Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl scarred the bejeebees out of me.)

Should Win: Julianne Moore

Will Win:  Julianne Moore

 

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne’s portrayal of the wheel chair bound Stephen Hawking was stunning to watch.  To watch him capture the physical deterioration of Hawking is Oscar worthy but I think there may be an upset here with the Academy honoring Michael Keaton’s comeback.

Should Win: Eddie Redmayne

Will Win: Michael Keaton

 

Best Supporting Actress:  Patricia Arquette’s performance as a mother making a life for her family as a single mother will be the winner here.  Hands down!

Should Win: Patricia Arquette

Will Win: Patricia Arquette

 

Best Supporting Actor: It’s true I would give an award to Robert Duvall every single year…but this year Whiplash’s J.K Simmons filled us with fear and loathing as a music conductor who emotionally abuses his star pupil to coax and even higher standard of performance.

Should Win: J.K. Simmons

Will Win: J.K. Simmons